作　者：宋凌峰 肖雅慧
关键词：金融发展；系统性风险；经济增长；门槛效应
摘　要：

结合经济性质发生结构性变化的现实背景，从理论和实证两方面研究不同经济形势下金融发展、系统性风险对经济增长影响的差异，可发现：在经济正常波动区间，金融发展、系统性风险对经济增长存在双重门槛效应，当金融发展和系统性风险都处于适中水平时，二者发挥协同作用，对经济增长起促进作用，否则会产生阻碍作用；但在经济持续下行区间，金融发展和系统性风险的组合对经济增长的影响为负，这一影响随着金融发展程度的提高和系统性风险的上升而扩大。因此，地方金融监管机构需要根据不同经济状况制定相应的金融发展和系统性风险管理措施，在经济正常波动区间，鼓励多种形式的金融创新，可适当提高对系统性风险的容忍度，把握金融发展和系统性风险的平衡，推动经济增长；在经济持续下行区间，降低系统性风险是首要目标，需要在防范系统性风险的前提下控制金融发展速度，防止金融发展过快引发系统性风险累积，降低其对经济的负面影响。

 

Threshold Effect of Financial Development, Systemic Risk and Economic Growth

Song Lingfeng，Xiao Yahui（Wuhan University）

Abstract Under the realistic background of the structural change in economy, this paper studies the impact of financial development and systemic risk on economic growth in different economic situations from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. The results show that within the normal fluctuation range of economy, financial development and systemic risk have a dual threshold effect on economic growth. When both financial development and systemic risk are at an appropriate level, they play a synergistic role and promote economic growth; otherwise, they will have a negative effect. However, in the continuous downward range of economy, financial development and systemic risk have a negative impact on economic growth, which will expand with the increase of financial development and systemic risk. Therefore, local regulatory authorities need to formulate policies in financial development and systemic risk management according to different economic conditions. In the normal fluctuation range of economy, it is necessary to encourage various forms of financial innovation, increase the tolerance for systemic risk appropriately, and keep a balance between financial development and systemic risk so as to promote economic growth. In the continuous downward range of economy, reducing systemic risk is the primary goal. It is necessary to control the financial development on the premise of preventing systemic risk, prevent excessive financial development from systemic risk accumulation, and reduce the negative impact on economy.

Key words   financial development; systemic risk; economic growth; threshold effect

 

■  作者简介 宋凌峰，经济学博士，武汉大学经济与管理学院副教授；湖北 武汉 430072；

肖雅慧（通讯作者），武汉大学经济与管理学院博士研究生。

 

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