作　者：王孝松 张忆濛 田思远
关键词：中国国内就业；关税；中间投入份额；增加值份额；贸易战；中美关系
摘　要：

基于包含中间品贸易、最终品贸易、行业异质性和投入产出关系的一般均衡定量模型，可以得到量化一国就业水平的均衡方程。通过使用扩展后的投入产出模型得到上述方程的关键系数，并以此分析贸易自由化与就业水平的关系，反事实模拟结果表明：2000 年至 2014 年间，中国制造业出口增长总共使得中国国内的就业水平提高了约 3.34%，出口增长有力推动了我国国内就业，是提升我国就业水平的重要途径；美国对华制造业关税下降对我国就业水平的影响十分有限，使我国国内就业水平上升约 0.005%；中国对美制造业关税的下降对我国国内就业水平的影响较大，使我国国内就业水平上升约 2.7%。未来我国可以对特定行业采取针对性的贸易政策，以应对贸易战和全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情暴发的负面   影响，从而实现稳就业。

 

Trade Liberalization and Employment Levels

A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis Based on a Structural Model

 

Wang Xiaosong, Zhang Yimeng, Tian Siyuan (Renmin University of China)

 

Abstract Based on a general equilibrium quantitative model that includes intermediate goods trade, final goods trade, industry heterogeneity and input-output relations, an equilibrium equation can be obtained which quantifies the level of employment in a country. This paper finds the key coefficients of the above equation by using the expanded input-output model, and analyses the relationship between trade liberalization and employment level. A counterfactual simulation indicates that the “export expansion” of China’s manufacturing industry from 2000 to 2014 has increased the domestic employment level by about 3.34%. The “export expansion” has effectively promoted China’s domestic employment and is an important means to enhance our employment level. The decline in the United States’ manufacturing tariffs on China has a very limited impact on China’s domestic employment level, which has increased by about 0.005%. The decline in China’s manufacturing tariffs on the United States has a greater impact on China’s domestic employment level, which has increased by about 2.7%. China can use targeted trade policies for specific industries in the future in order to cope with the negative impacts of trade war and COVID-19, so that a stable level of employment can be achieved.

Key words China’s domestic employment; tariff; intermediate input share; value-added share; trade war; Sino-US relationship

 

■ 作者简介 王孝松，经济学博士，中国人民大学经济学院教授、博士生导师；北京 100872；

张忆濛，中国人民大学经济学院博士研究生；

田思远，中国人民大学经济学院博士研究生。

[PDF]（下载数：）