作　者：吕普生
关键词：福利国家；经济衰退；人口老龄化；政治约束；社会公平
摘　要：

在21世纪去工业化、经济衰退和难民危机等新背景下，福利制度依然是欧洲国家政治争论和社会冲突的中心，同时也面临着经济社会变革、福利设计老化和政治制度约束等系列挑战。经济社会领域的急剧变革带来了福利紧缩压力和新旧双重福利需求，其中经济衰退侵蚀了福利分配的经济和财政基础，重度人口老龄化和劳动力短缺从侧面加重了社会抚养负担，而就业结构和形态等新变化则冲击了传统福利制度的基本框架。面对经济社会领域变革的外生挑战，欧洲传统福利制度越来越显示其局限性。建立在标准工人家庭假设基础上的慷慨福利制度极大地限制了社会福利的覆盖范围，也内生着制度惯性和福利依赖；养老金现收现付制度则因为重度老龄化而步履维艰；自上而下的政府供给模式在加重政府负担的同时限制了多样化的社会供给空间。这些内生局限使得欧洲传统福利制度对于经济社会变革缺乏足够的弹性和适应性，因而需要改革和调整。然而，福利制度改革受制于福利国家特定的政治框架，其中权力失衡的议会—内阁制度、法团主义利益代表制度和多党竞争性选举制度使得福利扩张而非紧缩成为不同主体政治博弈中的策略选择。

 

 

New Challenges for European Welfare States in the 21st Century

Lv Pusheng (Wuhan University)

 

Abstract Welfare system remains the focus of political debates and social conflicts in European countries against the new background of deindustrialization, economic recession and refugee crisis in the 21st century. It also faces a series of challenges including the economic society changes, aging welfare design and constraints of political system. The dramatic changes in economic society have brought about the welfare tightening pressure and the need for old and new benefits. The economic recession has erode the economic and financial base of welfare distribution; the severe population aging and labor shortage have increased the social support burden, and the new structures and patterns of employment have affected the basic framework of the traditional welfare system. Confronted with these exogenous challenges of economic society’s changes, European traditional welfare system is increasingly showing its limitations. For example, the generous welfare system, which is based on the standard worker family assumption, extremely limited the coverage of social welfare and generated institutional inertia and welfare dependence inherently; pension pay-as-you-go system is difficult to implement due to severe aging; top-down government supply model has increased its burden and left a small space for diversified social supply. Due to these limitations, the European traditional welfare system lacks sufficient flexibility and adaptability for economic society changes, which requires reforms and adjustment. However, this reform is subject to the specific political frameworks of welfare states. The power-unbalanced parliament-cabinet system, the interest representation system of corporatism and the multi-party competitive electoral system have made the expansion rather than austerity of welfare the strategy of different subjects in political games.

Key words         welfare states; economic recession; aging population; political constraints; social equity

 

■     作者简介 吕普生，政治学博士，武汉大学政治与公共管理学院副教授；湖北 武汉 430072。

 

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