作　者：石智雷 冯一桃
关键词：乡村人口变动；人口老龄化；人口服务体系；三孩生育政策；人口结构预测；生育率；婚姻文化；县域城镇化；农村养老服务
摘　要：

乡村人口变动已成为影响人口高质量发展的重要因素，深入探讨乡村人口变动与人口高质量发展困境，对理解当前中国的人口发展形势并回应相关重大现实问题具有重要意义。基于第七次全国人口普查、中国劳动力动态调查（CLDS）和2023 年第一期湖北百县老龄调查（HBAS）等数据资料，并采用队列要素法，可以对乡村人口变动形势展开全面分析。研究结果发现，乡村人口变动在婚龄人口性别比、老年人口高龄化以及婚姻稳定性等方面给人口高质量发展带来困境。具体而言，乡村出生人口和学龄人口总量快速下降，出生人口性别比逐步回归正常，但婚龄人口性别比严重失衡，男性光棍危机蔓延至农村社会中层家庭。乡村老年人口呈现高龄化、独居化趋势，对农村养老保障造成较大挑战。离婚文化开始侵袭农村，传统婚姻文化逐渐消解，导致乡村婚姻不稳定程度加剧。越来越多农村人口在县城购房，成为县域城镇化的主要推动力。农民工返乡就业人数增加，乡村初步显现“逆刘易斯过程”。为了进一步促进乡村人口高质量发展，更好地支撑中国式现代化建设，应当优化城乡教育资源供给、提升农村养老服务水平以及修复乡村婚姻和家庭文化。

 

On Rural Demographic Changes and the Dilemma Of High-quality Population Development

Shi Zhilei，Feng Yitao（Zhongnan University of Economics and Law）

Abstract Since rural demographic changes have become a significant factor affecting the high-quality population development, an in-depth exploration of the shifts in rural population dynamics and the predicaments of high-quality population development is of great significance for understanding China's demographic trends and responding to relevant major issues. Based on data from the Seventh National Census, China Labor-force Dynamics Survey (CLDS), and the first Hubei Aging Survey (HBAS) in 2023, the cohort-component method is applied to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the rural population dynamics. Rural population changes have posed challenges to high-quality population development in terms of gender ratio among marriage-age population, the aging of the elderly population, and marital stability. Specifically, the total number of rural births and school-age population is rapidly declining, and while the sex ratio at births is gradually returning to normal, the sex ratio among marriageable individuals is severely imbalanced, with the male bachelor crisis spreading to the middle class of rural society. More rural elderly population is turning 80 and living alone, posing significant challenges to rural elderly care programs and services. Divorce begins to infiltrate rural areas, gradually eroding traditional marital culture and exacerbating instability in rural marriages. An increasing number of rural residents are purchasing apartments in county towns, becoming a major driver of county-level urbanization. Additionally, more migrant workers are returning to their hometowns for employment, with rural areas taking on a reverse Lewis turning point. To further promote the high-quality development of the rural population and better support the modernization drive with Chinese characteristics, it is necessary to optimize the supply of educational resources between urban and rural areas, improve rural elderly care services, and restore rural marital and family culture.

Key words rural demographic changes; population aging; population services system; third child policy; demographic forecast; birth rate; marital culture; county-level urbanization; rural elderly care services

■作者简介 石智雷，中南财经政法大学经济学院、人口与健康研究中心教授，湖北 武汉 430073；冯一桃，中南财经政法大学公共管理学院、人口与健康研究中心博士研究生。

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