作　者：朱兰 王勇
关键词：人工成本；转型升级方式；制造业企业；新结构经济学
摘　要：

促进制造业转型升级是深入实施制造强国战略的重要内容。基于广东省制造业企业调研数据、龙信数据库的数据，重点研究人工成本上升对制造业企业选择不同转型升级方式的过程与动机的影响，可发现：第一，给定六种转型升级方式选择，人工成本上升显著提高企业自动化升级的概率，但对其他方式的影响较小或不显著。经过内生性处理和稳健性检验之后，这一结论依旧成立。第二，企业大多同时选择两种不同的转型升级方式，不同方式之间相关性较弱。自动化升级与自主研发、自建销售渠道、管理模式调整、品牌化这四种方式存在互补关系。第三，需求侧和供给侧因素均会促使企业自动化升级。在控制了需求侧因素之后，供给侧的成本倒逼机制依旧成立。第四，具有出口比较优势的产业和下游产业中的企业，以及在以制造业为主导产业的地区和相对于地区要素禀赋结构而言劳动力成本偏高的企业，人工成本上升对企业自动化升级的影响都更加显著。这一研究一方面为新结构经济学禀赋驱动产业升级理论提供了微观层面的实证支持，另一方面也能够为政府预测产业变迁方向、制定因势利导型产业政策提供数据支撑和决策参考。

 

Research on the Impact of Labor Costs on Manufacturing Enterprise Upgrading Modes

Zhu Lan（Chinese Academy of Social Science）

Wang Yong（Peking University）

Abstract  How to boost the upgrading and transformation of manufacturing firms is an important way to implement the national strategy of "building a strong manufacturing power". This paper examines how rising labor costs affect firms' choices of upgrading and the related mechanisms by using the firm-level survey data that cover the whole manufacturing sector in 20 prefectures of Guangdong Province. The following empirical results are obtained. (1) Rising labor costs significantly increase firms' probability of substituting labor with machines, but have little or no significant impact on the other modes of upgrading such as innovation, product diversification and branding. (2) Most firms choose two different modes of upgrading and correlations between different modes are generally weak. However, evidences show that automation is complementary to innovation, the building of sales network, adjustment of management mode and branding. (3) Firms' decision of automation is affected by both demand side and supply side factors. After controlling for the demand side factors, the supply side cost-compelling mechanism is still empirically significant. (4) Firms in industries that are consistent with the comparative advantage of Guangdong Province, or firms in middle- stream industries, or firms in prefectures with a higher manufacturing share or higher labor cost relative to regional factor endowment are more likely to substitute labor with machines. Our paper not only strongly sup‐ ports the main theoretical predictions of New Structural Economics, but also might help the government to formulate better industrial policies.

Key words      labor costs; upgrading and transformation choice; manufacturing firm; New Structural Economics

 

■    作者简介       朱    兰，经济学博士，中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所助理研究员；北京100871；王勇（通讯作者），经济学博士，北京大学新结构经济学研究院副教授、博士生导师；北京100871。

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