作　者：王恕立 门小璐
关键词：服务进口；服务出口；二氧化碳排放
摘　要：

将ACT 模型迁移至服务业领域，经由规模效应、技术效应和结构效应三条路径考察服务贸易对二氧化碳排放的影响机制。选取2007-2017 年的省际面板数据，运用中介效应模型梳理服务贸易对碳排放的传导路径，借助门槛模型对规模效应展开更为深入的探究，结果表明：中国目前的服务进口会减少二氧化碳的排放，服务出口则相反，二者相互抵减之后，对二氧化碳的减排有微弱的改善作用。服务进出口的技术效应和结构效应均显著为负，规模效应则存在门槛特征。随着服务业发展水平的提高，服务进口与污染排放的关系呈现为“正U 型曲线”，服务出口对二氧化碳排放的影响则可大致拟合为“N 型曲线”。据此， 中国应尽早正视服务贸易开放与环境保护之间的冲突，从而确保服务进出口在实现“碳达峰、碳中和”的过程中发挥积极的作用。

 

A Study on the Carbon Emission of Service Trade in China

Wang Shuli，Men Xiaolu（Wuhan University of Technology）

Abstract In this paper, we investigate the influencing mechanism of service trade on the carbon emission through the scale effect, technique effect and composition effect by employing the ACT model. Adopting Chinese inter-provincial panel data from 2007 to 2017, we sort out the transmission path of the impact of service trade on carbon dioxide emissions by using the intermediary effect model, and conduct a more in- depth exploration of the scale effect by the threshold model. The results show that China's current service import can reduce the emission of carbon dioxide while service export can increase pollution. After offsetting each other, there is a slight improvement in carbon dioxide emissions reduction. Both technical and structural effects of service imports and exports are significantly negative, while the scale effect has significant thresh‐ old characteristics. With the development level of the service industry, the relationship between service imports and pollution emissions presents a "positive U-shaped curve", and the impact of service exports on car‐ bon dioxide emissions can be roughly fitted to an "N-shaped curve". Accordingly, China should face up to the conflict between service trade opening and environmental protection as soon as possible, and ensure that service import and service export play positive roles in the process of achieving "carbon peak and carbon neutrality".

Key words      services import; services export; emission of carbon dioxide

 

 

■    作者简介 王恕立，管理学博士，武汉理工大学经济学院教授、博士生导师；湖北 武汉 430070；

门小璐，武汉理工大学经济学院博士研究生。

 

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