作　者：王海军 杨虎
关键词：数字金融；家庭债务风险；杠杆率；过度授信；过度借贷
摘　要：

家庭债务的过度扩张有导致经济陷入长期衰退的可能，而数字金融的渗透在 某种程度上也存在加速放大家庭债务的风险。通过CFPS 微观数据样本研究数字金融对中国家庭债务扩张的影响机制可发现：数字金融具有信贷软约束特征，可导致信贷市场出现过度授信和过度借贷，引起家庭债务扩张，加大家庭负债的脆弱性和不稳定性。数字金融的使用广度和金融数字化的程度对家庭债务风险具有明显正向影响，数字金融的快速渗透和广泛应用推动了家庭负债上升，数字金融的使用深度则会对家庭债务风险发挥一定缓释作用。数字金融对家庭债务的扩张作用主要通过推动房贷负债比的上升和挤占消费性支出下降的传导机制实现。异质性检验发现，数字金融对家庭债务风险的助推作用在高负债家庭中表现得尤为突出，但随家庭可支配收入的上升而下降，这种作用规律在城镇和中西部地区家庭更加明显。同时，稳健性检验表明，数字金融对家庭债务风险的作用存在滞后和衰减现象， 数字金融的当期影响最强，在滞后1 期时减弱，滞后2 期后不再显著。

 

Digital Finance Penetration and China's Household Debt Expansion

Transmission Mechanism Based on Housing Loans and Consumtions

 

Wang Haijun（Beijing Wuzi University）

Yang Hu（Central University of Finance and Economics）

 

Abstract  The excessive expansion of household debts may lead to a long-term recession and the digital finance penetration may also accelerate the increasing risks of household debts to some extent. Taking CF‐ PS micro data as the research sample, this paper explores the impact mechanism of digital finance on China's household debt expansion through theoretical and empirical analysis. Here are the major findings. First, digital finance has the characteristics of soft credit constraints, which may lead to excessive credit and excessive borrowing in the credit market and the expansion of household debts, increasing the vulnerability and instability of household debts. Second, the breadth of digital finance and the degree of financial digitization have a significantly positive impact on household debt risks. The rapid penetration and wide application of digital finance promote the rise of household debts, while the depth of digital finance will play a certain role in mitigating household debt risks. Third, the effect of digital finance on household debt expansion is mainly realized through the transmission mechanism of promoting the rise of housing loan debt ratio and "crowding out" the decline of consumer expenditure. Fourth, the heterogeneity test found that the boosting effect of digital Finance on household debt risk was particularly prominent in highly indebted households, but decreased with the increase of household disposable income, which was more obvious in urban and central and Western households. Fifth, the robustness test shows that the effect of digital finance on household debt risk lags and decays. The current impact of digital finance is the strongest, which weakens when it lags behind phase 1 and is no longer significant after phase 2. The research conclusion has important policy significances for stabilizing household sector leverage and preventing major systemic financial risks caused by the aggregation of household debt problems.

Key words      digital finance；household debt risk；leverage ratio；over credit；excessive borrowing

 

■    作者简介 王海军，经济学博士，北京物资学院中国投资者教育研究中心研究员，中央财经大学北京财经研究基地研究员；北京 101126；杨 虎，经济学博士，中央财经大学信息学院副教授；北京 100081。

 

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